Bitcoin Nears $76,500 Support as Midterms, Jobs Data and Tech Earnings Loom

Bitcoin is entering a data-heavy week with its market structure still under pressure. BTC has held above support near $76,500, but US midterm results, employment figures and earnings from major technology companies could quickly shift risk appetite.

Election week meets a weak quarter

US voters head to the polls Tuesday to decide control of Congress. Prediction market Kalshi put the chance of a Democratic House victory at 93.6% on Monday. President Donald Trump said he would use his veto power if Democrats take control, telling the New York Post, “I guess I’ll become Mr Veto. They’ll be sending stuff up. You veto it,” according to the paper.

US midterm elections odds (screenshot). Source: Kalshi

Bitcoin’s record during recent midterm years offers a cautionary backdrop: BTC fell 17.3% in the fourth quarter of 2014, 43.5% in 2018 and 14.8% in 2022. Each decline came during a broader bear market, so the pattern alone doesn’t establish that elections drove the losses.

Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform IntoTheCryptoverse, sees the seasonal weakness as a potential entry point for investors who have already reduced exposure. “Usually the Q4 dump of midterm years just provide opportunities to buy for those who sold long ago,” he said Friday on X. In July, he also pointed to Bitcoin bear-market lows forming in the second half of midterm years.

Jobs and Fed signals could reset rate expectations

September job openings data arrive Tuesday, with October’s nonfarm payrolls report due Friday. Forecasters expect payroll growth of 65,000, following September’s 29,000 additions, which came in below the 84,000 forecast. A weaker labor market could strengthen expectations for more dovish Federal Reserve signals, a potential support for crypto and other risk assets through easier liquidity conditions.

That reading will depend on more than one report. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are among the officials scheduled to speak, while the University of Michigan’s preliminary November consumer sentiment survey on Friday will include consumers’ inflation expectations.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in a 0.25 percentage-point rate increase at the Federal Open Market Committee’s December meeting. Those odds have stayed between 67% and 75% over the past month.

Fed target rate probability comparison for December FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Tech earnings put AI spending under scrutiny

About 20% of S&P 500 companies are due to report results in the coming days. Apple and Palantir are among the most closely watched, with both scheduled to report after Monday’s market close.

The reports follow last week’s technology sell-off, when disappointing guidance revived questions about whether heavy AI spending can produce commensurate revenue growth and returns. Economist Mohamed El-Erian described markets in weekend analysis as “acutely sensitive” to technology headlines. “The market is particularly focused on justification for the massive capital expenditures being deployed across the sector, ROI’s, and revenue growth,” he wrote.

That scrutiny matters for Bitcoin because shifts in appetite for technology shares can spill into broader risk positioning. BTC had fallen 7.3% in October and was down 6.4% for the quarter as of Monday, after its weakest October since 2014, according to CoinGlass.

Bitcoin holds two technical reference points

Despite the monthly decline, BTC/USD remained above its 100-day simple moving average, which had supported the price since mid-August. TradingView data showed Bitcoin holding above last week’s low near $76,300 and not revisiting it around the monthly close. The 100-day SMA has since risen to $76,548.

Bitcoin also closed the month back above its 100-week exponential moving average, at $77,759. Those levels give traders concrete markers to watch as macro news arrives, though holding them doesn’t settle the direction of the next move.

BTC/USD daily chart with 100 SMA, 100 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital is comparing the current weekly chart with Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2022 bear-market low. In that earlier move, BTC/USD formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, retested support at the right shoulder, briefly dipped below it and then rallied.

Rekt Capital identifies the recent move to $76,300 as a return to comparable right-shoulder support. He is watching for a short-lived dip below that area in the coming weeks. “The question now is whether Bitcoin can produce some sort of downside deviation below here over the next few weeks,” he said.

BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

For Bitcoin, the immediate test is whether support holds while markets absorb election results, labor data and technology earnings. A busy calendar may sharpen the market’s reaction, but price behavior around $76,300 to $76,548 remains the clearest near-term reference.