Bitcoin Falls Below $75,000 as Strong US Jobs Data Shifts Rate Bets
Bitcoin fell as stocks rallied
Bitcoin’s break below $75,000 showed how quickly rate expectations can separate crypto from technology stocks. US shares rallied on Friday, but BTC fell to its lowest levels since mid-August as traders weighed stronger employment data and the prospect of tighter monetary policy. The split matters because investors often group Bitcoin with other risk-sensitive assets, yet a shared appetite for risk doesn’t guarantee that they’ll move together when interest-rate expectations shift.
Stocks recovered while Bitcoin weakened
TradingView data showed BTC/USD dropping below $75,000 after the Wall Street open. The total crypto market capitalization was down 0.5% on the day. The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2% as investors bought discounted technology shares. Those figures point to different reactions across markets: US equities found buyers, while crypto remained under pressure.
The divergence doesn’t, by itself, explain why Bitcoin fell. But it does show that the stock rebound wasn’t enough to offset crypto traders’ concerns about the outlook for interest rates. Shares can recover on buying in specific sectors even as crypto investors reassess the cost of holding assets that don’t provide a yield.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Nasdaq Composite Index one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Some chipmakers climbed further: SanDisk and Micron Technologies each rose 6.3%. The gains added to the contrast between technology shares and Bitcoin, but they don’t establish that the two markets have permanently decoupled. A single session can reflect different news and trading priorities. Here, the jobs report gave crypto traders a reason to focus on monetary policy even as investors bought discounted technology shares.
Employment figures pushed rate hike odds higher
The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, well above the 65,000 expected. September’s reported gain was revised from 29,000 to 60,000. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1%, compared with a forecast of 4.2%. Together, the figures suggested that employment was stronger than traders had anticipated, reducing the case for assuming that policymakers would soon need to ease financial conditions.
“Employment increased in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing,” the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release said. The report’s sector details add context to the headline: job growth was recorded across several areas, rather than being described as concentrated in a single industry.
A resilient labor market can give policymakers more room to keep rates elevated. For crypto, that may mean less expectation of fresh liquidity supporting risk assets. That’s a market interpretation, not a direct read-through from jobs data to Bitcoin’s price: traders can respond to the implications they see for policy, while other forces continue to shape demand.
After the report, the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December rose from 66.9% to 76.8%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The change captures a shift in market expectations, not a settled policy decision. Even so, the direction helps explain why strong employment data could weigh on an asset whose price traders were already watching closely.
Fed target-rate probability comparison for December FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Bitcoin’s support zone faces a weekly test
Bitcoin also tested its 50-week simple moving average, at $77,533, while traders watched the support area near $75,500. That level has held since mid-September, but Keith Alan, cofounder of crypto trading platform Material Indicators, cautioned that its staying power wouldn’t be clear until the weekly candle closed. A brief move below support can unsettle traders, but the chart level’s significance depends on whether price holds there over the time frame they’re watching.
“As strong as this support level looks from both a technical and structural perspective, we can’t confirm its durability before the W close,” Alan wrote in his latest market analysis on X. The weekly close is therefore a threshold for assessing the setup, rather than proof that support will hold or fail.
BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-week SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Alan said a failure to hold around $75,500 could send BTC/USD as low as $69,000. That’s a conditional downside scenario, not a prediction that the price must reach that level. A recovery, in his view, would need a sequence of higher highs and higher lows on shorter time frames. The distinction matters: a bounce alone wouldn’t meet the pattern he described.
What the divergence could mean next
This is more significant than it looks: Bitcoin’s price action is being pulled between a nearby technical level and a broader reassessment of rates. If you’re working in this space, the key question is whether traders treat the jobs report as a lasting change in policy expectations or a short-lived repricing. The available evidence here points to higher rate-hike odds and a support test, but it doesn’t settle which force will dominate.
And yet. Stocks can rise while Bitcoin falls, and neither move guarantees what comes next. The weekly close around the support zone, alongside any further change in rate expectations, offers a clearer basis for judging the near-term setup. For now, the market has a level to watch and a policy signal to interpret (and this is the part most people overlook).
Short-term direction remains uncertain.
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